07/08/2025
Levent Öztürk
Sabancı University Faculty of Engineering and Natural Sciences, Faculty Member
Feeding an ever-growing population is one of humanity's most pressing challenges. One in nine people worldwide is hungry, meaning they can't find enough food to meet their daily caloric needs. Some of those who can find enough food actually fill their stomachs, but they are still hungry because the food they eat (like white flour, sugar, and fat) don't provide more than calories.
On one side, we have those who are truly hungry because they can't find food. On the other, we have the "hidden hungry," those who fill their stomachs but lack access to foods rich in protein, minerals, and vitamins. In fact, hidden hunger is even more widespread and more difficult to solve, because hidden hunger leads to obesity.
Now, some might say, "There's actually enough food in the world for everyone, we just don't know how to share." Yes, that's true! Our planet can currently produce enough agricultural food for 8.2 billion people. But the question is, how sustainable is this situation in the face of a growing population and changing climate? Countless calculations, modeling, and simulation studies have been conducted over the years to answer this intriguing question. The results are quite different. Some estimate the world's "sustainable" human population at 4 billion, while others estimate it at 16 billion. Before debating which research result is more accurate, let's average them: the result is 10 billion. In other words, our planet can only sustainably support approximately 10 billion people. So, when will we reach this "carrying capacity" of 10 billion? The answer is simpler: According to UN data, we will be 9.8 billion in 2050 and 11.2 billion in 2100!
In fact, significant progress has been made in combating global hunger over the last 50 years, and the trend has been consistently positive. Between 1970 and 1974, the global prevalence of undernourishment was around 35%. In other words, 35 out of 100 people worldwide lacked enough food to meet their daily energy needs. The problem of undernourishment has decreased significantly over the years. According to data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), it fell to a record low of 7.1% in 2017. But what happened next? The prevalence of undernourishment, which had been declining significantly for the last 50 years and which we had predicted would eventually end, has now increased for the first time in human history! The FAO announced the 2023 figure as 9.1%. What happened to make this global hunger resurface after years of improvement?
The rise in global hunger in the last few years is attributed to the effects of global climate change. An examination of country-specific data reveals that climate extremes (excessive and erratic rainfall, extreme temperatures, and droughts), particularly in recent years, have negatively impacted agricultural production systems. This, in turn, negatively impacts food security and the population's access to adequate, high-quality food. For decades, scientists have been researching which regions, which plant varieties, and which methods yield the most. This is how hunger has been prevented for the last 50 years. Now, scientists face a more complex challenge: how can we sustainably feed the world's population in the face of a changing climate?
In previous years, farmers would ask scientists things like, "Can you develop a drought-resistant variety for me?" or "Is there a variety resistant to this disease?" Scientists have been striving to fulfill these requests one by one for 50 years. Frankly, they've been quite successful, and despite the growing population, global hunger has decreased. But now, farmers are demanding things like, "This place isn't what it used to be. We're having to deal with diseases and pests we've never seen before. The rains we're expecting in season suddenly come, and our crops fall. Sometimes our seeds don't germinate due to drought, and sometimes it rains unexpectedly at harvest time, and the seed germinates while it's still in the ear. Oh, please find a solution..." Global climate change is impacting our agricultural production systems and human nutrition on a scale we've never seen before. Things are more complex now. While in previous years, we were looking for answers to one or two problems, now we have to deal with numerous problems that can arise simultaneously. Moreover, these problems don't just stand still; they're erratic, variable, and extreme, like the rain farmers long for.
It's clear that the global climate change events observed in recent years are human-caused. The biggest culprit is clear: the incredible increase in fossil fuel consumption! So much so that we're reducing the world's "carrying capacity" with our own hands. The global climate is changing, and it's impossible to stop it immediately. So, the only thing left to do is be prepared! Because being prepared is better than being caught up in changes whose direction is uncertain. We must find ways to make our agricultural and food production systems resilient not only to global climate change, but also to global economic and political changes. To achieve this, we must relentlessly monitor and analyze the risks associated with global change and develop early warning and response systems.
